2017 July 23 Radio Show WorkPage

July 23, 2017

Workin 4 A Livin

Radio Show Work Page

This is the page that you will be needing to follow along with the Workin 4 A Livin Radio Show of July 23, 2017. To better understand the General Motors vehicle manufacturing capacity adjustments, when those decisions were actually made, when they should have been made, why all the rhetoric at this time when those capacity adjustment decisions are about to be implemented and what these decisions mean to the future stability of our members – you will need the following information.

As is always the case with the radio show where, “Progressives For Change, Offer Opinions That Matter”. This companion information for the July 23, 2017 Workin 4 A Livin Radio Show; is also “information based in our opinion”, all-be-it a well educated opinion, by “Progressives For Change, Offering Opinions That Matter”!

Of course there was the tribute to fallen Sisters Donna Christmas of Louisville, KY and Teresa J. Dodge of Flint, MI; the announcements, email and wonderful reports from both Jeff Brown [Update], and David Fillion [Social Security COLA and definitions for “Hold Harmless” and “Balance Billing”.]

Then Leroy McKnight reported on “potential threat to plants and jobs from slumping U.S. car sales”?

Leroy first indicated which vehicles are reportedly “at risk” – stating: GM cars at risk include the Buick LaCrosse, Cadillac CT6, Cadillac XTS, Chevrolet Impala and Chevrolet Sonic, sources said.

Then Leroy read an excerpt from a recent article that quoted UAW President Dennis Williams:

“We are talking to (GM) right now about the products that they currently have” at underused car plants such as Hamtramck in Michigan and Lordstown in Ohio, and whether they might be replaced with newer, more popular vehicles such as crossovers, Dennis Williams told reporters.

“We are tracking it (and) we are addressing it,” Williams added.”

The entire article may be read by clicking here.

Then Leroy read a paragraph from the transcript of General Motor’s “year end” conference call held on February 7, 2017:

“Year-end day supply is well positioned at 71 days, in line with our target of 70 days. Looking ahead to Q1, we expect aggregate dealer inventory levels to remain higher than a year ago, as the industry remained strong and we built dealer stock ahead of our upcoming crossover launches. Having said that, we will continue to manage inventories with discipline and take the necessary actions as demonstrated by our recent shift reductions to match current production with demand.”

The entire verbatim transcript may be read by clicking here.

Leroy then pointed out that the decisions by General Motors to do “crossover launches” were made at least 5 months ago and were discussed openly on the February 7, 2017 Year End Conference call. Thus, the current comments by UAW President Dennis Williams indicating that “he” is NOW encouraging General Motors to add crossovers; is nothing more than political pandering to take credit for decisions clearly made by General Motors at least 6 months ago.

At that point in the show that Leroy was critical of the “wisdom” of adding high end Trucks and Cross over SUV’s to the model mix at what he perceives to be at or near a market high.

To further illustrate this began verbally referring to a 20 year chart of the Standard and Poor 500 (SPX) that are now illustrated below on this follow along work page:

 

Below is a barren 20 year chart as most everyone views it.

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Below is a 20 year chart with top to bottom “Cycle Times” added

Leroy noted very short top to bottom cycle times from 200 to 2003 and from 2007 to 2009, and suggested that because of the magnitude of this past 15,000 DOW point increase [2009 to 2017] with little to no real correction that the next down turn cycle time may be a bit longer than either of the previous ones – he suggested 30 to 36 months.

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Below is a 20 year chart with 19 year green base line added

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Below is a 20 year chart with 17 year blue “a-line added across the 2000 and 2007 highs

Leroy was very critical of GM for not adding manufacturing capacity for higher end trucks and Cross over SUVs once the market(s) crossed above the blue line in early 2013. Having done so would have better positioned GM for the resultant euphoria, and would have prevented the reactionary decision to add manufacturing capacity late in the cycle that was made by GM earlier this year, and not-with-standing Dennis Williams pandering, is about to be implemented at arguably the top of the cycle.

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Below is a 20 year chart with red lines from

the 2007 most recent high and from the 2009 low and 2017 high

Leroy pointed out that the difference from the most recent high in 2007 and the subsequent low of 2009 and current high is very small – In fact, only 14 SPX points or 112 DOW points. Because of this in Leroy’s opinion we are at or near a market top and reversal. Thus could soon experience a downturn similar to the 2003 and 2007 downturns.

By adding mfg capacity for trucks and SUVs at this time, will we once again have the model mix “out of balance”, as smaller vehicles are likely to be the better sellers after such a market constriction. Leroy noted that by the next cycle low that Dennis Williams will be long gone and unavailable to be held accountable for the flawed wisdom of adding high end truck and SUV capacity at the perceived cycle high of the market – well behind the curve.

Also… THIS MESSAGE does not go out to just good ole’ Dennis and GM,

but needs to also be conveyed to the approximately $600,000 per year VEBA fund administrator and to the Pension Fund administrator as well!

[Do you think that Leroy is attempting to affect proper model mix going forward to the probable cycle low near the year of 2020ish – during a time his TEAM aspires to be in leadership? If he is – “Good lookin out for the members!!!”]

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At the end of his report Leroy said he would give us a tip!

Can you see the hint in this extended chart?

Remember all of the above in on this page is an opinion only,

and not intended in any way as investment advice.

Please consult with your Financial Adviser for

investment guidance specific to your personal interests.

From TEAM Workin 4 A Livin – Caucus

For more information about other labor issues visit Workin 4 A Livin.

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